Wii to be in 30% of US homes by 2011?

Some may suggest that the meteoric rise of the Nintendo Wii is merely a passing fad based on novelty value and ‘average Joe’ curiosity, to which we’d suggest those people consider two things: the similar response that met the Nintendo DS when it first arrived; and the handheld’s resultant positioning as the undisputed market leader. We believe the Wii is here to stay, and if you don’t feel the same, then allow the following to better convince you.

According to research carried out by Merrill Lynch, and reported in the Financial Times, the long-term forecast for the Nintendo Wii is far from bringing the black clouds of premature ending that we witnessed with the ill-fated GameCube. Moreover, the current sales performance attributed to the Wii (which saw it outstrip the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 during January) has seen some analysts re-evaluating and upgrading their outlooks regarding Nintendo’s latest console offering.

Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, is so confident regarding the Wii’s future that forecasts for the machine indicate that close to 30% of US households will have a Wii by the year 2011. And Kinoshita also suggests that percentage might be even more significant in the Japanese territory, with around a third of all households expected to embrace the Wii – and bear in mind that more than two years after the release of the DS, it is STILL largely sold out across the region despite Nintendo’s best efforts.

In terms of specifics, Enterbrain (publisher of Japanese gaming magazine Famitsu) has revealed that some 600,000 units of the Wii were snaffled by eager Japanese consumers throughout January, amounting to an impressive 68% of all monthly sales – with PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 limping in behind with 25% and 7% respectively.

However, reports such as these – based on analyst predictions – always have a viable counterbalance, and while we are a distinctly pro-Nintendo site, it’s worth noting that global market research company Screen Digest begs to differ in the very strongest sense. More pointedly, a Screen Digest report entitled “Next Generation Consoles: Games publishing, hardware analysis and forecasts to 2010” outlines that Sony’s PlayStation 3 will be the top player come 2010, with the Nintendo Wii lagging some way behind (in all territories) at a distant third, and Microsoft’s Xbox 360 sandwiched between the two – just like the last generation.

Let us not forget, however, that predictions are just that, forecasts of possible futures. And Nintendic? Well, we’re currently predicting that all three major players will fall to the might of the rejuvenated N-Gage. No, seriously!

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